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Iran Is Too Rational To Attack Israel

Israeli commentator and security expert Reuven Pedatzur denounced the war-mongering against Iran as dangerous in an op-ed in today's {Ha'aretz}, in which he declared that, contrary to what some analysts claim, the Iranian leadership will act rationally when it comes to deploying nuclear weapons. 

Like Russia and China, they will consider the effect of retaliation before they make their decisions. 

Therefore, he concludes that, not only is a deterrent strategy viable, but the war-mongering by Israel and the West creates a "dangerous" dynamic.

Pedatzur points to a study by Prof. Ofira Seliktar of Gratz College in Pennsylvania, who found that two-thirds of researchers of a nuclear Iran can be considered "nuclear optimists," because they find that Iran will act rationally along the lines of a Cold War-type deterrence policy. 


The rest are "nuclear pessimists," who believe that Iran is not a rational state, so, deterrent capabilities will not suffice.

Pedatzur writes, "An analysis of the evidence reveals that the optimists defend their position much more convincingly. 


Iran, they contend, is developing nuclear weapons as a result of its bitter experience in the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, not because of a plan to use such weapons against its neighbors or Israel.


The development of nuclear weapons is a rational Iranian choice; it's the logical response of a non-Western state to Western powers and their allies. (It's no accident that Defense Minister Ehud Barak quipped that if he were an Iranian, he would take part in the development of nuclear weapons.)"

He concludes, "We should therefore note Israel's error when it magnifies the Iranian threat and depicts it as an existential threat. 


Israel's deterrent capability suffices to prevent any Iranian leader from entertaining thoughts about firing a nuclear warhead at it. 


The time has come to stop complaining about the boogeyman of existential threat and desist from jingoistic declarations that sometimes create a dangerous dynamic of escalation."

Pedatzur, who is director of Netanya Academic College's S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue, hosted a forum on Iran yesterday, whose speakers included former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, who declared that it was dangerous for Israel to attack Iran.  ---

Former Israeli Shin Bet Chief Calls for Israel To Open Communication Channels with Iran
More and more members of the Israeli security establishment are speaking out against a military strike against Iran at this time, while at the same time Israeli intelligence sources report that both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, have exerted tremendous pressure on security figures, including former Mossad Chief Meir Dagan, who have voiced opposition to Netanyahu and Barak's drive for war.

Speaking at a forum on Iran yesterday at the Netanya Academic College's S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue, along with former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, Yaakov Perry called on Israel to open up some lines of communication with Iran. 


He complained that neither Israel nor the U.S. has a communication channel with Tehran, which lack, he said, could increase the chances of a tragic miscalculation.

Another participant in that forum was Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan, the nephew of the late Gen. Moshe Dayan, who has also expressed caution on an Israeli strike on Iran. 


Dayan, who was a former head of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) military intelligence and national security advisor to former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, told the forum that while Israel should prepare a military option, it should only be carried out as a last resort.


He, as with other speakers, including Gen. (res.) Amir Nachumi, who was one of the pilots who bombed the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1982, all believe that now is not the time for Israel to attack Iran.

According to a participant at the forum, the major point of discussion was that in Israel there is no formal decision-making process in which such a major decision as launching an attack on Iran, an attack that could lead to a major war for Israel, can be made through careful deliberations. 


Under the current situation, Netanyahu and Barak have the right to make that decision themselves, without consulting the cabinet or the government.


While the military would be responsible for carrying out such an operation, it has no formal say in the decision. The consensus among the conference participants was that such a state of affairs is dangerous for the security of Israel.