Who's Winning, Obama or Clinton?
The Democratic primary is a close race complicated by the confusing system used to distribute delegates and super delegates (if you're wondering what a super delegate is see here). As the race approaches a welcomed finish, it is still unclear who is winning.
Hillary Rodham Clinton won’t catch Barack H. Obama in the race for Democratic delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses, even if she wins every remaining contest.
But Obama cannot win the nomination with just his pledged primary and caucus delegates either, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.
Two months into the voting, Obama can claim the most delegates chosen by voters.
Clinton can claim victories in most of the big states.
What should a superdelegate do? Unsurprisingly, the two campaigns have different takes on that question.
Clinton won three out of four primaries this week, giving her campaign a much-needed boost after a month of defeats.
But she picked up only 12 more delegates than Obama, leaving him with a 140-delegate lead among those won in primaries and caucuses.
There are only 614 delegates available in the remaining contests, meaning Clinton would have to win about 62 percent of them to overtake Obama, according to the AP analysis.
That’s nearly impossible, given the way Democrats award delegates proportionally.
Consider this: Clinton posted a big win in the Ohio primary Tuesday, beating Obama by about 10 ercentage points. Her take: nine more delegates than him in the Buckeye State.
In the Texas primary, Clinton’s margin of victory was smaller, about 3 percentage points, and her net gain was smaller, too: four more delegates than Obama. Obama could wipe out most or all of that advantage if early returns showing him winning in the Texas caucuses hold up.
Obama has won nominating contests in 27 states and territories, giving him the lead in pledged delegates, 1,360 to 1,220. Even if he wins every remaining pledged delegate — including 33 that haven’t been awarded from previous races — he will fall short of the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination.
That’s where the superdelegates come in, the nearly 800 party and elected officials who will decide the nomination if both candidates stay in the race.
Clinton leads in endorsements from superdelegates, 242-208. But that lead has shrunk in the past month. Since an AP survey the week of Super Tuesday, Obama has added 53 superdelegates, while Clinton has had a net loss of one.
Here is a good, but complicated, breakdown of where the AP got these numbers.