Why the Fiscal Cliff Is Impacting Consumer Spending
The fiscal cliff is causing a drag on the economy and, in particular, consumers’ desire to spend, due to the uncertainty of how the budgetary cuts and tax increases will impact income. If the fiscal cliff is allowed to proceed—and it will to some degree—the reality is that taxes will rise. I’m not sure if the middle class and those who earn less than $250,000 will be spared, but I do feel there will be a compromise made on the income tax increases.
In the meantime, consumers are likely to be hesitant to spend in the retail sector. The headline retail sales reading rose 0.3% in November, which was below the Briefing.com 0.6% estimate but up from -0.3% in October. The ex-auto reading was flat, lower than the Briefing.com 0.2% estimate. While the November numbers don’t translate into December, I’m sensing the uncertainty of the fiscal cliff will impact consumer spending in this key shopping season for the retail sector.
We are heading into the heart of the holiday shopping season. I’m sure the retail sector is anxiously praying for consumers to spend. A strong shopping season in the retail sector will also go a long way to helping the economic recovery, while also giving the stock market good news.