Zimbabwe Given 6 Months to Live

by Jordan Yerman | June 14, 2007 at 06:25 am

1264 views | 10 Recommendations | 7 comments

Update: It looks like the seeds of dissent are sprouting, as an apparent coup attempt as been uncovered. I don't believe in political violence, but Mugabe's government has ruled with an iron fist and Mugabe himself has claimed he would hold office until his death, so he must have seen this coming:
[q
url="http://www.mg.co.za/articlepage.aspx?area=/breaking_news/breaking_news__africa/&articleid=311446"]A
group of soldiers was in custody in Zimbabwe on charges of plotting to
oust President Robert Mugabe and replace him with a Cabinet minister, a
newspaper report claimed on Friday.

In sensational revelations, the weekly Zimbabwe Independent
newspaper said it had obtained court papers containing the allegations.

The paper claims that six men, including a former army officer and
at least two serving soldiers, were currently in custody, some of them
since late May. They are being charged with treason, the Independent
said.

The men are accused of plotting to overthrow the long-time
Zimbabwean leader -- whose popularity many believe may be finally on
the wane -- and replace him with Rural Housing Minister Emmerson
Mnangagwa, once a favourite of Mugabe.[/q]

Yesterday, Zimbabwean parliament passed a heavy-handed censorship law that will affect anyone who communicates via post, telephone or Internet, provided that they even have access to electricity to boot up their computers:

[q
url="http://www.mg.co.za/articlepage.aspx?area=/breaking_news/breaking_news__africa/&articleid=311292"]Zimbabwe's
Parliament, heavily dominated by President Robert Mugabe's party, has
passed a controversial new Bill that allows the government to monitor
phones, emails and post, reports said on Thursday.

The Interception of Communications Bill, which critics say will violate freedom of expression, was passed on Wednesday.

The Bill proposes the setting up of an interception of
communications monitoring centre run by people appointed by the
government.

Zimbabwe Communications Minister Christopher Mushowe has defended
the proposed law. He told Parliament earlier this week that countries
including Britain, the United States and South Africa have similar laws.

"These are countries that are regarded as the beacons of democracy," he said on Tuesday.

But critics say the legislation will be used to further persecute
government opponents, including the opposition Movement for Democratic
Change, rights groups and independent journalists.

Under the proposed law the communications minister will be
authorised to issue warrants for intercepting communications in cases
where there are believed to be threats to national security
...
Legal experts say high court judges and not a minister in Mugabe's
Cabinet should be responsible for issuing interception warrants.

Private internet service providers will be compelled to install, at
their own expense, devices necessary for intercepting emails.

[/q]

Zimbabwe, as a state entity, is clinging to life as inflation spirals ever higher. Robert Mugabe's security forces are seeing their wages dry up-- this may well affect the duration of their loyalty. What will happen when money becomes worthless in Zimbabwe? The economy will shift to barter and in-kind trade, which will be, by its very nature, beyond Mugabe's control.

Zimbabwe will collapse within six months, possibly leading to a state of emergency, according to a briefing report for aid workers in the country.

Rampant inflation will mean shops and services can no longer function and people would resort to barter, it said.

"The memorandum is talking about a situation where there is no functioning government or a total breakdown," an unnamed aid worker told the UK Times.

Zimbabwe's inflation is already 3,714% - the highest rate in the world.

Business quotes were now valid for just one day or even one hour, said the report written by consultants and sent to workers at the United Nations and other aid agencies.

Some firms were already partly paying their workers in food, rather than money, it said.

Shops were doubling their prices twice a month, so they could purchase replacement goods.

If this continues, "doubling the current inflation for each of the seven remaining months of 2007 gives 512,000% thus the economic collapse is expected before the end of 2007," said the report, according to the AP news agency.

The security forces who have remained loyal to President Robert Mugabe were also feeling the effects.

The report said an ordinary police officer earned less than aid workers paid their domestic staff.

It said power and water suppliers were already near collapse. Electricity was last month rationed to just four hours a day to save power for farmers.

Just one adult in five is believed to have a regular job.

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joellerose

at 07:51 on June 14th, 2007

Perhaps it has to collapse before the former Rhodesia can be rescued from the madmen who took over and confiscated the properties of white people.

babblingdweeb

at 12:10 on June 14th, 2007

That's a fair assessment in some ways...but I have to say: maybe we need to look at the white people that confiscated the properties of black Africans. While the population demographics have declined since the guerrilla take over in the 70s, the country was never +51% white. So the land and properties originally belonged to black Africans for thousands of years and in 1888 British Government came in and colonized (like they did all over the world) and created a government that tool over the land.

The country is 98% Black African and 1.5% White (mix)...I don't think there needed to be a hostile take over of the government, but who knows how long the Brittish would have reigned over a country they had no right to take control over.

I'm not sure who was right, this is a "lesser of two evils" I believe.

babblingdweeb

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 11:57 on June 14th, 2007

Jordan, this is Good stuff...

There is a lot of interesting things going on in Zimbabwe right now. Over 2000 and 2005 their imports vs. exports as a % of GDP has grown, but they still fall into a "typical" category of a developing country. Their running at a higher trade deficit (2005 World Bank Data), which is scary when you look at current inflation. Being in turmoil the country is sure to stand low on the totem pole for IMF lending as Zimbabwe's odds of repayment dwindle.

Inflation was 56.2% in 2000 and 237.7% in 2005; at the same time inflation rates for low income countries were 6.2% and 8.2% (2000 and 2005 respoectively) -so Zimbabwe has been sticking out for some time. Cival war and -GDP go hand in hand for economic downfall. [GDP was improving between 2000 and 2005]

U.S. aid in 2005 was $367.7 million (up almost more than 2x 2000 values)..thquestion is, when do you stop throwing good money after bad? How does ethics v.s. U.S. aid play a role?

In the 1970s the now current president Robert Mugabe lead guerrillas in an effort to overthrow the current government (predominantly white) leaders. This pulls forward to today's issues in that President Mugabe denies responsibility for current economics and blames the "west" -presumably the CIA in an attempt to rupture Zimbabwe's economy. Fair statement? Debatable.

Zimbabwe has long been one of Africa's worst economic performers (according to UNECA [United Nations Economic Commission for Africa]), so it's hard to say if the CIA/U.S. would need to get involved to cripple the ailing economy. Civil war ended in 1979; 1980 Mugabe was President (actually Prime Minister until 1989) -and today 27 years later the economy is still in disarray.

If Zimbabwe can stay afloat until the 2008 [local] election, I think President Mugabe will find his landslide victory days are long gone.

stard0g101

at 03:11 on June 15th, 2007

It would be interesting to see how many Zimbabwean people would want the old style government back. Bearing in mind that Rhodesia was FAR more liberal than South Africa. In fact to the point that all of the tribal trustlands were self managing (traditional chiefs running their regions, in the traditional way.) and reporting to the "white government" only as far as taxation (as per any civilised country)

Since his goverment corrupted, this madman (Mugabe) has blamed every single woe on a vast white consipiracy and infact even publicly cursing the "b*stard white government" (england) that put him in power. (England supported the terrorists during the war and effectively turned their backs on the most productive region in africa at the time).

As for his landslide victories being gone! You actually think that the people of Zimbabwe voted freely and fairly? Press gangs are rife and the ruling party thinks nothing of killing and raping in order to get their way.

joellerose

at 05:29 on June 15th, 2007

Please don't confuse people's belief systems with facts.

babblingdweeb

at 06:11 on June 15th, 2007

"You actually think that the people of Zimbabwe voted freely and fairly?"

Actually no, I have yet to see a country that counts every citizen's vote or doesn't have some corrupt voting practice. However, I do think that Mugabe had more monitary power then vs. now; not to mention, there was a system (albeit failing) that was in place. I actually think if the statistics and this prediction hold true, the country will lack an official leader and a political system -not counting anarchy and gang rule.

My comment about landslide victories was based on: I just don't know if the structure of a government will exist enough for them to have elections vs. "self-appointed" leaders. So he might still be in control, but I don't know how much control he will have. Additionally, if there is some CIA connection (which I don't think there is), they would put someone else in a leadership position...but I doubt that will happen.